Dumped Christmas trees are a gift for Lake Havasu fish









The ghosts of Christmas past can be found in some unusual places. The bottom of Lake Havasu, for instance.


There, thousands of Christmas trees sunk by wildlife biologists have found a second life as fish habitat in an ecosystem damaged by the damming of the Colorado River decades ago.


What nature once provided — a steady source of organic material such as brush and uprooted trees — disappeared when the once wild and muddy river was tamed.





By the late 1980s, Lake Havasu's now crystal clear waters harbored few places where newly spawned fish could find shelter from predators. Fish populations were a fraction of what they had been a generation before.


"There was no place for the young fish to hide until they matured," said Kirk Koch, a fisheries program manager for the U.S. Bureau of Land Management. "Instead, they would be consumed by bigger fish."


The solution was a gift that keeps on giving: Christmas trees.


More than 30 million farm-harvested trees are sold nationwide each year. No matter how pretty they're decorated, they all meet the same ignoble fate: ground up as mulch or buried in landfills.


When it began in 1992, the effort at Lake Havasu was the largest fresh-water habitat recovery program in the nation, Koch said.


Over the next decade, $16 million and countless hours of work by volunteers created 875 acres of artificial reefs.


Structures were formed by sinking PVC pipe, concrete sewer pipe and cinder blocks in 42 coves. Then, discarded Christmas trees were lashed together, weighted down and dumped around the structures. Piles of brush were added.


As the trees and brush decomposed, the pipe and concrete structure grew a biological skin of mosses and algae that was then colonized by insects. In addition to providing shelter, the Christmas tree structures also became a source of fish food.


Scuba divers check sites annually and have found that fish are drawn to Christmas trees as much as Santa is.


"When they started, they could count all of the fish at any spot on their fingers," Koch said. "Progressively, they found more fish — way, way more fish — than they can count."


The project turned Lake Havasu into a popular sport fishing destination.


"Before this, the lake was basically dead," said Arnold Vignoni, president of the local chapter of Anglers United, whose members help maintain the reefs. "The bass tournament guys — and we have lots of bass tournaments here now — say the fishing is just outstanding."


It takes a Christmas tree five to six years to decompose under water. So each year, volunteers toss in as many as 500 additional trees and a thousand brush piles to replenish the reefs.


Part of the benefit of creating habitat with Christmas trees is that it's cheap — trash haulers are happy to unload onto others what they pick up at the curb.


This year, Riverside County supervisors approved a plan to transfer 2 tons of trees collected at county landfills to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife, which will dump them into two lakes that badly need them.


The load will make Quinn Granfors' job much easier.


Granfors, a state fisheries biologist, has been tossing trees into Lake Elsinore and Lake Perris since 2006. Working under budget constraints, he was left to scrounge around on his own after Christmas in search of trees. Now they'll be coming to him.


In the coming weeks, he and volunteers will send hundreds of weighted trees to the bottom of the lakes.


"I kind of joke with the guys that they're now qualified to get a job with the mob," Granfors said. "Because they know how to make organic material disappear."


mike.anton@latimes.com





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Cricketer Herath alive and bowling despite death rumors






SYDNEY (Reuters) – As Mark Twain might have said, rumors of the death of Sri Lankan spinner Rangana Herath which spread like wildfire across social media late on Friday proved to be greatly exaggerated.


Far from lying in a Sydney morgue alongside former test bowler Chaminda Vaas after perishing in a car crash as the reports had suggested, Herath was very much alive when he pitched up for work at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Saturday.






The most prolific wicket-taker in test cricket last year, the 34-year-old leg spinner claimed two Australian wickets to seal a haul of four for 95 and then contributed nine runs with the bat.


Team mate Dimuth Karunaratne told reporters at the conclusion of the day’s play that the team had been dumbfounded by the rumors.


“I heard about it when we having breakfast but I had no idea where that came from,” he said with a laugh.


“Guys from Sri Lanka were calling us asking ‘when is the funeral?’ and stuff like that.


“Rangana is alive,” he added, somewhat unnecessarily.


Herath’s efforts were not enough to prevent Australia taking an iron grip on the third test match on Saturday and move to the brink of a 3-0 series sweep.


That could all change, however, if he and Dinesh Chandimal, who finished the third day unbeaten on 22, are able to dig in on Sunday, inflate their lead beyond the current 87 and give Sri Lanka a decent target to bowl at.


The Sydney track has traditionally offered a lot of turn for spinners in the last couple of days of a test and, as Herath’s 60 wickets last year showed, there are few better spinners operating in test cricket at the moment.


“The wicket is turning a lot now and the Aussie guys are playing the fourth innings, so I think Rangana… can do something,” said Karunaratne.


Vaas has no position with the test team and remains, also unharmed, in Sri Lanka, Sri Lankan reporters said.


(Editing by John O’Brien)


Internet News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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Courteney Cox: I'll 'Show My Boobs' on the New Season of Cougar Town















01/04/2013 at 08:00 PM EST



Courteney Cox is taking the term "boob tube" literally.

The Cougar Town star, 48, whose show moves from ABC to TBS on Jan. 8, eagerly anticipates more um, revealing scenes once the program makes its way to the cable network.

"You will not see one scene that I don't show my boobs," Cox joked to reporters Friday at the Television Critics Association winter tour, according to Access Hollywood.

"You know what? I'm getting older, so I've decided at this point I'm taking less focus [on] the face, and focusing here," she added, pointing to her chest. "By the time I'm much older, I will just be absolutely nude. I think it's [going to] work for me, I hope."

The show's executive producer, Bill Lawrence, backed up Cox's comments. "There is one difference [with the show going to cable]," he said Friday. "I think I'm allowed to say … Courteney did declare this the year of her cleavage."

Still, the star isn't exactly baring it all. Although there is an episode themed "naked day" for Cox's character Jules and her on-camera hubby Grayson (Josh Hopkins), there will be no actual nudity on the show.

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India Ink: Lawmakers in India Charged With Crime Could Face Speedier Trials

India’s Supreme Court on Friday asked the government to consider fast-tracking trials of lawmakers who are facing criminal charges, lawyers said, after activists filed a petition demanding legislators accused of abusing women be disqualified from public office.

Six state legislators have charges of rape against them, and 36 have been charged with other crimes against women, according to a Dec. 20 report by the Association for Democratic Reforms.

The Supreme Court rejected activists’ demands that these lawmakers be suspended from their offices when charged, saying the court was not empowered to make such a decision. The activists’ demands were part of two sweeping public interest litigations reviewed by the court on Friday, filed in response to a recent gang rape in Delhi that resulted in the death of a 23-year-old woman.

The government has announced several measures in response to outrage over the gang rape in recent weeks, including faster courts, women’s hotlines and an initiative to review the country’s rape law. Civil society groups and activists, however, are demanding broader reforms.

The Supreme Court on Friday asked the government to respond to several requests, including the establishment of fast-track courts in all states to try sex offenses, the formulation of judicial norms for the payment of compensation to rape victims, the filling of vacancies in the police force, the creation of a national toll-free helpline for victims of rape and child abuse and the creation of a registry of convicted sexual offenders to be circulated among the police force.

The court rejected a demand for a reduction in security for high-profile figures like politicians and diplomats, which many say reduces the police force for other citizens, and for the investigation of crimes against women by female officers only.

“We have asked for many systemic changes,” said Promilla Shankar, one of the petitioners and a former government officer who worked in India’s administrative services. “What is needed is a complete overhaul of the judicial and governance system.”

India’s top court has already given directions on many of the changes activists are demanding. In November, while considering a case on “Eve-teasing,” a term used in South Asia to mean sexual harassment, the court directed the government to deploy female police officers in all busy public places, held the managers of places like educational institutions, worship houses and movie theaters responsible for preventing sexual abuse, and required operators of public vehicles to report cases of harassment to the police.

In Ms. Shankar’s petition, the Supreme Court was asked to suspend “tainted” police officers, government officials and members of Parliament and legislative assemblies who are facing rape or murder charges. The petition also demanded that the trials of these high-profile suspects be expedited, and if they are found guilty, they should be dismissed.

In India, a lawmaker convicted by a lower court can keep his position by appealing the decision in a higher court. These cases often continue for years, if not decades.

“Lawmakers should be people of a certain character and caliber,” Ms. Shankar said. “What can the people expect if their representatives have criminal cases pending against them?”

Activists have also objected to political parties who field candidates with criminal charges pending. In the 2009 general elections, six candidates, from various parties, had been charged with rape, and in the last five years, political parties have nominated 27 candidates with rape charges against them, according to the report by the Association for Democratic Reforms, a nonprofit that works for electoral reforms.

These cases represent a “minuscule number” of actual crimes, said Anil Bairwal, the organization’s national coordinator, as a large number of such crimes are not reported, and politicians are able to use their considerable influence to prevent prosecution.

In an effort to “name and shame” the accused politicians, the report includes their names and political parties and details the charges against them.

“These are the people in whose hands the people have given the country, so to speak,” said Mr. Bairwal. “This is not a small matter.”

Petitions filed by the Association for Democratic Reforms over a decade ago resulted in an order that requires candidates to declare their financial, educational and criminal background, but only those who have been convicted of a crime are disqualified from running for office. A separate petition to disallow candidates who are facing criminal charges has been pending in the courts since 2005.

“A much simpler solution is to put pressure on political parties not to have candidates who have criminal charges,” said Jagdeep Chhokar, one of the founders of the Association for Democratic Reforms. “But that is not happening in this country because of the obstinacy or shamelessness of the political parties.”

Public anger poured out in Assam this week against a Congress politician, Bikram Singh Brahma, who was accused of raping a married woman. Television footage showed a bare-chested man being beaten by a group of women shortly before his arrest. Mr. Brahma was subsequently suspended from his party.

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Indian court to rule on generic drug industry


NEW DELHI (AP) — From Africa's crowded AIDS clinics to the malarial jungles of Southeast Asia, the lives of millions of ill people in the developing world are hanging in the balance ahead of a legal ruling that will determine whether India's drug companies can continue to provide cheap versions of many life-saving medicines.


The case — involving Swiss drug maker Novartis AG's cancer drug Glivec — pits aid groups that argue India plays a vital role as the pharmacy to the poor against drug companies that insist they need strong patents to make drug development profitable. A ruling by India's Supreme Court is expected in early 2013.


"The implications of this case reach far beyond India, and far beyond this particular cancer drug," said Leena Menghaney, from the aid group Doctors Without Borders. "Across the world, there is a heavy dependence on India to supply affordable versions of expensive patented medicines."


With no costs for developing new drugs or conducting expensive trials, India's $26 billion generics industry is able to sell medicine for as little as one-tenth the price of the companies that developed them, making India the second-largest source of medicines distributed by UNICEF in its global programs.


Indian pharmaceutical companies such as Cipla, Cadila Laboratories and Lupin have emerged over the past decade as major sources of generic cancer, malaria, tuberculosis and AIDS drugs for poor countries that can't afford to pay Western prices.


The 6-year-old case that just wrapped up in the Supreme Court revolves around a legal provision in India's 2005 patent law that is aimed at preventing companies from getting fresh patents for making only minor changes to existing medicines — a practice known as "evergreening."


Novartis' argued that a new version of Glivec — marketed in the U.S. as Gleevec — was a significant change from the earlier version because it was more easily absorbed by the body.


India's Patent Controller turned down the application, saying the change was an obvious development, and the new medicine was not sufficiently distinct from the earlier version to warrant a patent extension.


Patient advocacy groups hailed the decision as a blow to "evergreening."


But Western companies argued that India's generic manufacturers were cutting the incentive for major drug makers to invest in research and innovation if they were not going to be able to reap the exclusive profits that patents bring.


"This case is about safeguarding incentives for better medicines so that patients' needs will be met in the future," says Eric Althoff, a Novartis spokesman.


International drug companies have accused India of disregarding intellectual property rights, and have pushed for stronger patent protection that would weaken India's generics industry.


Earlier this year, an Indian manufacturer was allowed to produce a far cheaper version of the kidney and liver cancer treatment sorefinib, manufactured by Bayer Corp.


Bayer was selling the drug for about $5,600 a month. Natco, the Indian company, said its generic version would cost $175 a month, less than 1/30th as much. Natco was ordered to pay 6 percent in royalties to Bayer.


Novartis says the outcome of the new case will not affect the availability of generic versions of Glivec because it is covered by a grandfather clause in India's patent law. Only the more easily absorbed drug would be affected, Althoff said, adding that its own generic business, Sandoz, produces cheap versions of its drugs for millions across the globe.


Public health activists say the question goes beyond Glivec to whether drug companies should get special protection for minor tweaks to medicines that others could easily have uncovered.


"We're looking to the Supreme Court to tell Novartis it won't open the floodgates and allow abusive patenting practices," said Eldred Tellis, of the Sankalp Rehabilitation Centre, a private group working with HIV patients.


The court's decision is expected to be a landmark that will influence future drug accessibility and price across the developing world.


"We're already paying very high prices for some of the new drugs that are patented in India," said Petros Isaakidis, an epidemiologist with Doctors Without Borders. "If Novartis' wins, even older medicines could be subject to patenting again, and it will become much more difficult for us in future to provide medicines to our patients being treated for HIV, hepatitis and drug resistant TB."


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Legislators want Army Corps to explain habitat removal decision









Two state senators on Thursday called on the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to explain its decision to plow under 43 acres of lush wildlife habitat at the Sepulveda Basin without prior notice or coordination with community leaders and environmentalists.


Sens. Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles) and Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills) asked for details about what led to the agency's declaration in August that its "vegetation management plan" for the area did not require an environmental impact report because it would not significantly disturb wildlife and habitat.


On Dec. 10, Army Corps bulldozers, mowers and mulching machines stripped nearly all the greenery from the swath of Los Angeles River flood plain just west of Interstate 405 and north of Burbank Boulevard, wiping out habitat for mammals, reptiles and hundreds of species of birds.





"When a clunky federal bureaucracy doesn't collaborate with state and local officials and community leaders, you create a real mess, which is what we have right now at the Sepulveda Basin," De Leon said in an interview.


He noted that although the corps is not subject to state environmental laws, protections from the federal National Environmental Policy Act may apply.


"If the Army Corps doesn't cooperate, the next step is to engage members of Congress to exercise their powers, or have the state attorney general notify the U.S. district attorney's office," De Leon said.


Pavley, whose district includes the Sepulveda Basin, said she wants to know the extent of damage caused to trails, markers and signs funded with "state and local park monies" and installed and maintained "by thousands of hours of volunteer work."


Army Corps of Engineers District Cmdr. Col. Mark Toy was unavailable for comment. But corps spokesman Jay Field said the agency will cooperate fully with the senators.


The area existed as a wildlife preserve adjacent to the Sepulveda Dam for more than three decades. In 2010, it was reclassified as a corps "vegetation management area" with a new five-year mission of replacing trees and shrubs with native grasses as part of an effort to improve access for corps staffers, increase public safety and discourage crime, lewd activity, drug abuse and homeless camps.


Environmental groups led by the San Fernando Valley Audubon Society interpreted the plan to suggest the agency would avoid removal of native willow and cotton groves, elderberries, coyote brush and mule fat. Much of that vegetation was planted decades ago under a corps program to create the wildlife preserve.


Kris Ohlenkamp, conservation chairman of the San Fernando Valley Audubon Society, said the corps' management plan was vague. "But this much is clear: What the corps actually did to that land is not represented anywhere in the plan."


Army Corps Deputy District Cmdr. Alexander Deraney has said his agency's actions were "more or less in line with the plan." He said the corps wanted to preserve the native vegetation but discovered that "the native brush was so grown into non-native brush that it would be impossible to separate them."


The corps has ceased operations on the property pending consultations and meetings with environmental and community groups.


louis.sahagun@latimes.com





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Poll finds people want an ‘iPhone 5S’ with new color options






The latest rumor surrounding Apple’s (AAPL) next-generation “iPhone 5S” is that it will launch in May or June with two different screen sizes and five different color options. So said Topeka Capital Markets analyst Brian White in a research note earlier this week. White has made some good early calls before — he was one of the first to report that Apple was working on the iPad mini — but nothing is official until Apple announces it on stage at a press conference. One thing we can say with some amount of certainty, though, is that a sizable portion of Apple fans would be interested in a next-generation iPhone made available with new color choices.


[More from BGR: Samsung confirms plan to begin inching away from Android]






In a poll published by BGR on Wednesday, 35% of respondents reported that they would purchase the next iPhone in either blue, pink or yellow if Apple were to launch the device in those colors, as suggested by White. Another 28.4% said they would be interested in the new color options, but they would want to see how they look before making a purchasing decision.


[More from BGR: Microsoft called a failing giant that only survives by charging prices that ‘bleed customers dry’]


More than 2,000 people voted in the poll and roughly 85% of respondents live in the United States.


The results are not scientific, however they do suggest that there would be significant demand for an iPhone with new color options in key markets like the U.S. And where the iPhone 4S had Siri and the iPhone 5 had a fresh new design with a larger display, Apple will certainly look to launch its next-generation smartphone with some key points of differentiation.


As they were with the iPod touch, new color options may be among the next iPhone’s key new features when it launches later this year — and if that is indeed the case, it looks like the new colors will be met with significant interest from consumers.


This article was originally published by BGR


Gadgets News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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Jessica Simpson: Motherhood Is the Best - and the Most Challenging

Jessica Simpson: Motherhood Is the Best - and the Most Challenging
Jamie McCarthy/Getty


Being a working mom has its ups and downs for Jessica Simpson.


The Fashion Star mentor, 32, who announced on Christmas Day that she is expecting her second child, recently told PEOPLE, “Motherhood is the best thing I’ve ever experienced – and the most challenging.”


Balancing her career with her personal life is one of Simpson’s struggles.


“On some of the days of Fashion Star, I’m awake before [my daughter Maxwell] is awake, and I’m not home until she’s already back to sleep,” she explains.


“That’s only happened about four times, but it makes the day awful. I definitely need to see my baby.”

“I get really sad if I don’t get to see her,” she continues. “And then when Maxwell sees me, she just stares at me and touches my face. I can tell she missed me. That breaks my heart.”


But at the end of the day, Simpson and her fiancĂ© Eric Johnson “feel like we’ve done such a good job” parenting thus far.


Calling Johnson “a great father,” the starlet goes on to say, “It is the sexiest thing in the world to watch how he handles [Maxwell]. We’re both learning together, but it’s fun because we both get to grow in our relationship together.”


As a mom to her eight-month-old, Simpson says, “There are little things that you kind of obsess over. I never knew how protective I was until I had my own child. I’m already thinking about intruders coming into the house and what our escape route would be.”


Simpson’s personal style has also changed since becoming a parent.


“I find myself going for more sophisticated looks, butI do think that’s kind of trendy right now – just a classier looking woman,” she says. “I love to show off my curves, but being a mom, I guess I do it in a little bit more classy way, even though for Halloween I was a milkmaid – but there are moments.”


– Dahvi Shira


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Depardieu, in Tax Fight, Gets Russian Citizenship







MOSCOW (AP) — Gerard Depardieu, the French actor who has waged a battle against a proposed super-tax on millionaires in his native country, has been granted Russian citizenship.




A brief announcement on the Kremlin website on Thursday revealed that President Vladimir Putin signed the citizenship grant following an application from the actor.


The former Oscar nominee and star of the movie "Green Card" has been vocal in his opposition to French President Francois Hollande's plans to raise the tax on earned income above €1 million ($1.33 million) to 75 percent from the current high of 41 percent. Russia has a flat 13-percent tax rate.


"I have never killed anyone, I don't think I've been unworthy, I've paid €145 million in taxes over 45 years," Depardieu wrote in an open letter in mid-December to Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, who had called the actor "pathetic."


"I will neither complain nor brag, but I refuse to be called 'pathetic,'" the 64-year-old actor wrote in his response.


A representative for the former Oscar nominee declined to say whether he had accepted the Russian offer, and refused all comment. Thursday was a holiday in Russia and officials from the Federal Tax Service and Federal Migration Service could not be reached for comment on whether the decision would require Depardieu to have a residence in Russia.


Depardieu said in his letter to Ayrault that he would surrender his passport and French social security card. In October, the mayor of a small Belgian border town announced that Depardieu had bought a house and set up legal residence there, a move that was slammed by the newly-elected Socialist government.


Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, the French government spokeswoman, didn't comment directly on Depardieu's tax fight, but drew a clear distinction between people who have personal or professional reasons to live abroad, and "French citizens who proclaim loudly and clearly that they they're exiling themselves for fiscal reasons."


She said Putin's offer "is an exclusive prerogative of the Russian chief of state."


Depardieu has had increasingly high-profile ties with Russia. Last October he visited the capital of Chechnya, Grozny, to celebrate the birthday of Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov. And in 2011, he was in Russia's Arkhangelsk region to play the lead role in the film "Rasputin."


"You have to understand that Depardieu is a star in Russia," Vladimir Fedorovski, a Russian writer living in France, told the network Europe 1 on Thursday. "There are crowds around Depardieu. He's a symbol of France. He's a huge ambassador of French culture."


Though France's highest court struck down the two-year tax on Dec. 29, the government has promised to resubmit the law in a slightly different form soon. On Wednesday it estimated that the court decision to overturn the tax would cost it €210 million in 2013.


In an interview published Sunday, Depardieu told the Sunday Parisien that the court decision made no difference.


France's debt burden is around 90 percent of national income — not far off levels that have caused problems elsewhere in the 17-country eurozone.


Depardieu has made more than 150 films, among them the 1991 comedy "Green Card" about a man who enters into a marriage of convenience in order to get U.S. residency. Most famously, Depardieu was nominated for an Academy Award for his role as Cyrano de Bergerac in the 1990 film by the same name.


The Kremlin statement gave no information on why Putin made the citizenship grant, but the Russian president expressed sympathy with the actor in December, days after Depardieu reportedly said he was considering Russian citizenship.


"As we say, artists are easily offended and therefore I understand the feelings of Mr. Depardieu," Putin said.


Although France and Russia disagree sharply about how to resolve the civil war in Syria, the two countries have strong commercial relations. In 2011, Russia signed a contract worth more than €1 billion ($1.33 billion) Friday to buy two French warships — the largest military deal between a NATO country and Moscow.


Depardieu is well known in Russia, where he appears in an ad for Sovietsky Bank's credit card and is prominently featured on the bank's home page.


Depardieu is not the only high-profile Frenchman to object to the super-tax. Bernard Arnault — chief of the luxury goods and fashion giant LVMH and worth an estimated $41 billion — has also said he would leave for Belgium.


France's Civil Code says one must have another nationality in order to give up French citizenship because it is forbidden to be stateless. Thursday's decision by the Kremlin appears to fulfill that requirement.


____


Hinnant contributed from Paris. Silvie Corbet also contributed from Paris.


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Flu? Malaria? Disease forecasters look to the sky


NEW YORK (AP) — Only a 10 percent chance of showers today, but a 70 percent chance of flu next month.


That's the kind of forecasting health scientists are trying to move toward, as they increasingly include weather data in their attempts to predict disease outbreaks.


In one recent study, two scientists reported they could predict — more than seven weeks in advance — when flu season was going to peak in New York City. Theirs was just the latest in a growing wave of computer models that factor in rainfall, temperature or other weather conditions to forecast disease.


Health officials are excited by this kind of work and the idea that it could be used to fine-tune vaccination campaigns or other disease prevention efforts.


At the same time, experts note that outbreaks are influenced as much, or more, by human behavior and other factors as by the weather. Some argue weather-based outbreak predictions still have a long way to go. And when government health officials warned in early December that flu season seemed to be off to an early start, they said there was no evidence it was driven by the weather.


This disease-forecasting concept is not new: Scientists have been working on mathematical models to predict outbreaks for decades and have long factored in the weather. They have known, for example, that temperature and rainfall affect the breeding of mosquitoes that carry malaria, West Nile virus and other dangerous diseases.


Recent improvements in weather-tracking have helped, including satellite technology and more sophisticated computer data processing.


As a result, "in the last five years or so, there's been quite an improvement and acceleration" in weather-focused disease modeling, said Ira Longini, a University of Florida biostatistician who's worked on outbreak prediction projects.


Some models have been labeled successes.


In the United States, researchers at Johns Hopkins University and the University of New Mexico tried to predict outbreaks of hantavirus in the late 1990s. They used rain and snow data and other information to study patterns of plant growth that attract rodents. People catch the disease from the droppings of infected rodents.


"We predicted what would happen later that year," said Gregory Glass, a Johns Hopkins researcher who worked on the project.


More recently, in east Africa, satellites have been used to predict rainfall by measuring sea-surface temperatures and cloud density. That's been used to generate "risk maps" for Rift Valley fever — a virus that spreads from animals to people and in severe cases can cause blindness or death. Researchers have said the system in some cases has given two to six weeks advance warning.


Last year, other researchers using satellite data in east Africa said they found that a small change in average temperature was a warning sign cholera cases would double within four months.


"We are getting very close to developing a viable forecasting system" against cholera that can help health officials in African countries ramp up emergency vaccinations and other efforts, said a statement by one of the authors, Rita Reyburn of the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul, South Korea.


Some diseases are hard to forecast, such as West Nile virus. Last year, the U.S. suffered one of its worst years since the virus arrived in 1999. There were more than 2,600 serious illnesses and nearly 240 deaths.


Officials said the mild winter, early spring and very hot summer helped spur mosquito breeding and the spread of the virus. But the danger wasn't spread uniformly. In Texas, the Dallas area was particularly hard-hit, while other places, including some with similar weather patterns and the same type of mosquitoes, were not as affected.


"Why Dallas, and not areas with similar ecological conditions? We don't really know," said Roger Nasci of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He is chief of the CDC branch that tracks insect-borne viruses.


Some think flu lends itself to outbreak forecasting — there's already a predictability to the annual winter flu season. But that's been tricky, too.


Seasonal flu reports come from doctors' offices, but those show the disease when it's already spreading. Some researchers have studied tweets on Twitter and searches on Google, but their work has offered a jump of only a week or two on traditional methods.


In the study of New York City flu cases published last month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the authors said they could forecast, by up to seven weeks, the peak of flu season.


They designed a model based on weather and flu data from past years, 2003-09. In part, their design was based on earlier studies that found flu virus spreads better when the air is dry and turns colder. They made calculations based on humidity readings and on Google Flu Trends, which tracks how many people are searching each day for information on flu-related topics (often because they're beginning to feel ill).


Using that model, they hope to try real-time predictions as early as next year, said Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University, who led the work.


"It's certainly exciting," said Lyn Finelli, the CDC's flu surveillance chief. She said the CDC supports Shaman's work, but agency officials are eager to see follow-up studies showing the model can predict flu trends in places different from New York, like Miami.


Despite the optimism by some, Dr. Edward Ryan, a Harvard University professor of immunology and infectious diseases, is cautious about weather-based prediction models. "I'm not sure any of them are ready for prime time," he said.


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