The Bachelor's Sean Lowe Blogs About His Dates in St. Croix

Sean Lowe is the star of season 17 of The Bachelor, which airs Mondays on ABC. The hunky Dallas businessman and entrepreneur is blogging about his romantic journey for PEOPLE.com.

I'd developed really strong feelings for the final six women on The Bachelor – and I could hardly wait to take them to St. Croix. Our previous week in Canada was great! My heart and head were back on track, and I felt as though the women put their focus back on me. And because of that, each of my relationships grew stronger.

But it was time to leave the cold weather behind and move on to some sandy beaches. This was a huge week for all of us because I would have to decide whose family I was ready to meet.

I had three one-on-one dates and one group date in St. Croix. I decided to give the one-on-one dates to women I had questions for – and the group date went to the women whose hometowns I was ready to visit.

My first date was with AshLee, who was a front-runner in my mind since we visited the theme park back in Los Angeles. She is sweet, loving and compassionate, and I knew she truly wanted to give her heart over to me. But I was still left with doubts about our relationship because I didn't seem to have as much fun with her as I did with the other women.

Given her traumatic childhood, it's understandable why AshLee has control issues. But I think that was preventing her from really letting go and allowing herself to have fun. I really want a partner that I can laugh uncontrollably with and someone who can make even mundane tasks feel exciting. I hoped AshLee had that quality in her, or that I brought it out in her, and I was ready to find out.

After taking the catamaran to the island, AshLee decided to take one for the team and tell me everything I needed to know about Tierra. Until that point, I had only heard the women say they didn't like Tierra, but they never gave specific reasons. It was actually a huge relief to hear all that AshLee had to say. It took a lot of courage for her to bring it up.

That evening, we ended our date with an oceanside dinner where she screamed her love for me while standing on a chair. For the first time, I felt like AshLee was finally letting go and stepping out of her comfort zone for me. I left that date thinking once again that AshLee might be the woman for me.

Connecting with Tierra

Next was my long-awaited date with Tierra. I had a lot of fun with her that day walking around the streets of St. Croix, but I couldn't shake what AshLee had told me. That night, as we had a romantic dinner in an old sugar mill, I tried to really figure out what my feelings were for Tierra, and if I could see a future for us.

I was nervous that if I ended up with Tierra, drama would follow her into our everyday lives. But when she told me she was falling in love with me, I softened a bit. She was always kind when she was with me, and I wanted to believe that the drama was circumstantial and that once she wasn't around a bunch of girls dating the same guy, she would be drama-free. I still ended the evening with questions, but remembering that my connection with Tierra was strong.

Group Date

The following day was the group date with Des, Lindsay and Catherine. I didn't have a lot of questions for these three women. They all have one thing in common: I always have fun with them. Since the beginning I've said that I want to marry my best friend, and they definitely fit that criterion.

We spent the day traveling and touring the island in a Jeep. At the end of the day, I really didn't know who I would give the rose to because they were all so deserving. But I decided to give it to Lindsay because she was so supportive, patient and encouraging throughout this entire journey.

My last date of the week was with Lesley. She was another person who fit the best-friend criteria, but I needed to see more from her. Lesley had a wall up and I always felt like she couldn't be completely vulnerable with me.

Our date was fun, but I needed more than fun. I desperately wanted to see her open up emotionally and allow me to see her true feelings, but that never happened. I was shocked to hear her say on TV that she loved me, and I was left confused as to why she didn't tell me that during our date. Had she told me, it could have changed everything.

Sisterly Advice

I flew my sister, Shay, to St. Croix for her birthday. She loves the show (she signed me up for The Bachelorette!), and I thought it would be a cool present for her. She is also a great judge of character and she knows me better than anyone else.

My sister's advice before I left Dallas for L.A. was to avoid the girl whom drama surrounded. After hearing everything that AshLee had to say about Tierra, I thought it would be a good idea to have my sister sit down and visit with Tierra so I could get her opinion.

I had no idea what I was walking into upon entering the women's suite. I was not aware of the big blowout AshLee and Tierra just had. I found Tierra crying on her bed with her head in her hands. I had already figured by this point that Tierra was not the woman I was going to marry, so when I saw how distraught she was, I knew I had to end it right then and there.

I still believe Tierra has more good in her than people see, but I also recognize that she doesn't have the maturity or social skills necessary to make it on The Bachelor.

When it came time to send someone home at the rose ceremony, I felt confident in my decision. As much as I enjoyed spending time with Lesley, I knew I had to send her home because she never allowed herself to open up emotionally.

I was sad to see Lesley leave, but I felt so confident in my final four. Knowing hometown dates were right around the corner, I was incredibly excited. I loved bringing Emily home to meet my family, and it changed everything for me, so I had really high hopes for the coming week. On to hometowns!

Thanks for watching!
Sean

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The Lede: Latest Updates on Pope's Resignation

The Lede is providing updates on Pope Benedict XVI’s announcement on Monday that he intends to resign on Feb. 28, less than eight years after he took office, the first pope to do so in six centuries.

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What heals traumatized kids? Answers are lacking

CHICAGO (AP) — Shootings and other traumatic events involving children are not rare events, but there's a startling lack of scientific evidence on the best ways to help young survivors and witnesses heal, a government-funded analysis found.

School-based counseling treatments showed the most promise, but there's no hard proof that anxiety drugs or other medication work and far more research is needed to provide solid answers, say the authors who reviewed 25 studies. Their report was sponsored by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

According to research cited in the report, about two-thirds of U.S. children and teens younger than 18 will experience at least one traumatic event, including shootings and other violence, car crashes and weather disasters. That includes survivors and witnesses of trauma. Most will not suffer any long-term psychological problems, but about 13 percent will develop symptoms of post-traumatic stress, including anxiety, behavior difficulties and other problems related to the event.

The report's conclusions don't mean that no treatment works. It's just that no one knows which treatments are best, or if certain ones work better for some children but not others.

"Our findings serve as a call to action," the researchers wrote in their analysis, published online Monday by the journal Pediatrics.

"This is a very important topic, just in light of recent events," said lead author Valerie Forman-Hoffman, a researcher at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.

She has two young children and said the results suggest that it's likely one of them will experience some kind of trauma before reaching adulthood. "As a parent I want to know what works best," the researcher said.

Besides the December massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut, other recent tragedies involving young survivors or witnesses include the fatal shooting last month of a 15-year-old Chicago girl gunned down in front of a group of friends; Superstorm Sandy in October; and the 2011 Joplin, Mo., tornado, whose survivors include students whose high school was destroyed.

Some may do fine with no treatment; others will need some sort of counseling to help them cope.

Studying which treatments are most effective is difficult because so many things affect how a child or teen will fare emotionally after a traumatic event, said Dr. Denise Dowd, an emergency physician and research director at Children's Mercy Hospitals and Clinics in Kansas City, Mo., who wrote a Pediatrics editorial.

One of the most important factors is how the child's parents handle the aftermath, Dowd said.

"If the parent is freaking out" and has difficulty controlling emotions, kids will have a tougher time dealing with trauma. Traumatized kids need to feel like they're in a safe and stable environment, and if their parents have trouble coping, "it's going to be very difficult for the kid," she said.

The researchers analyzed 25 studies of treatments that included anti-anxiety and depression drugs, school-based counseling, and various types of psychotherapy. The strongest evidence favored school-based treatments involving cognitive behavior therapy, which helps patients find ways to cope with disturbing thoughts and emotions, sometimes including talking repeatedly about their trauma.

This treatment worked better than nothing, but more research is needed comparing it with alternatives, the report says.

"We really don't have a gold standard treatment right now," said William Copeland, a psychologist and researcher at Duke University Medical Center who was not involved in the report. A lot of doctors and therapists may be "patching together a little bit of this and a little bit of that, and that might not add up to the most effective treatment for any given child," he said.

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Online:

Pediatrics: http://www.pediatrics.org

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Dorner's LAPD firing case hinged on credibility

For a Los Angeles Police Department disciplinary panel, the evidence was persuasive: Rookie officer Christopher Jordan Dorner lied when he accused his training officer of kicking a mentally ill man during an arrest.

But when a Los Angeles County Superior Court judge examined the case a year later in 2010 as part of an appeal filed by Dorner, he seemed less convinced.

Judge David P. Yaffe said he was "uncertain whether the training officer kicked the suspect or not" but nevertheless upheld the department's decision to fire Dorner, according to court records reviewed by The Times.

As the manhunt for the ex-cop wanted in the slayings of three people enters its sixth day, Dorner's firing has been the subject of debate both within and outside the LAPD. An online manifesto that police attributed to Dorner claims he was railroaded by the LAPD and unjustly fired. His allegations have resonated among the public and some LAPD employees who have criticized the department's disciplinary system, calling it capricious and retaliatory toward those who try to expose misconduct.

Seeking to address those concerns, LAPD Chief Charlie Beck announced this weekend that he was reopening the investigation into Dorner's disciplinary case. "It is important to me that we have a department that is seen as valuing fairness," Beck said.

LAPD records show that Dorner's disciplinary panel heard from several witnesses who testified that they did not see the training officer kick the man. The panel found that the man did not have injuries consistent with having been kicked, nor was there evidence of having been kicked on his clothes. A key witness in Dorner's defense was the man's father, who testified that his son told him he had been kicked by police. The panel concluded that the father's testimony "lacked credibility," finding that his son was too mentally ill to give a reliable account.

The online manifesto rails against the LAPD officials who took part in the review hearing and vows revenge. Police allege Dorner killed his own attorney's daughter and her fiance last weekend in Irvine.

"Your lack of ethics and conspiring to wrong a just individual are over. Suppressing the truth will [lead] to deadly consequences for you and your family," the manifesto says.

Dorner's case revolved around a July 28, 2007, call about a man causing a disturbance at the DoubleTree Hotel in San Pedro. When Dorner and his training officer showed up, they found Christopher Gettler. He was uncooperative and threw a punch at one of the officers, prompting Dorner's training officer, Teresa Evans, to use an electric Taser weapon on him.

Nearly two weeks later, Dorner walked into Sgt. Donald Deming's office at the Harbor Division police station. There were tears in Dorner's eyes, the sergeant later testified.

Deming gave the following account of what happened next:

"I have something bad to talk to you about, something really bad," Dorner told him.

Evans, Dorner explained, had kicked Gettler once in the face and twice in the left shoulder or nearby chest area. Afterward, Dorner said, Evans told him not to include the kicks on the arrest report.

"Promise me you won't do anything," Dorner asked Deming.

"No, Chris. I have to do something," Deming responded.

An internal affairs investigation into the allegation concluded the kicks never occurred. Investigators subsequently decided that Dorner had fabricated his account. He was charged with making false accusations.

At the December 2008 Board of Rights hearing, Dorner's attorney, Randal Quan, conceded that his client should have reported the kicks sooner but told the board that Dorner ultimately did the right thing. He called the case against Dorner "very, very ugly."

"This officer wasn't given a fair shake," Quan said, according to transcripts of the board hearing. "In fact, what's happening here is this officer is being made a scapegoat."

At the hearing, Dorner stuck to his story. Evans, he said, kicked Gettler once in the left side of his collarbone lightly with her right boot as they struggled to handcuff him. She kicked him once more forcefully in the same area, Dorner testified, and then much harder in the face, snapping Gettler's head back. Dorner said he noticed fresh blood on Gettler's face.

Dorner did not immediately report the kicks to a sergeant, he said, because he was asked only what force he had used, not what his partner had done. And as a rookie who had already filed complaints against fellow officers, he feared retaliation from within the department, Dorner testified.

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Anne Hathaway on Winning An Oscar: Whatever Happens, Happens

By Phil Boucher

02/11/2013 at 07:00 AM EST

She's won big at the Golden Globes and now the BAFTAs, but will Anne Hathaway take home an Oscar?

Hathaway – who is nominated for Best Supporting Actress for her role in Les Misérables – isn't spending too much time worrying about it.

"Whatever happens in two weeks, happens. It won't be the worst thing that happens to me if I don't win, and with my husband by my side it won't be the best thing either. So I am feeling very good about whatever," the actress, 30, told reporters backstage after nabbing a best supporting actress statue at Sunday's British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards in London.

"I really have to say that getting to do the work, getting to play the character with this cast and to have this opportunity, it is the most sublime experience. I don't know how I got so lucky. ... So I don't think ahead – I am just happy to be in the conversation in two weeks' time," she said.

But should she win, Hathaway has been imagining where to keep her statue.

"I kind of have this fantasy – because this year that I have been lucky enough to receive a few pieces of hardware – that I'm going to get a tool shed and keep it in my garage so that it opens to some music. But for now I am just going to keep it in my kitchen," she said.

While she's earned awards and received critical acclaim for her portrayal of Fantine, she says the best thing to come of filming the musical epic was meeting costar Russell Crowe.

"The biggest surprise of the whole experience was what a sweetie pie Russell Crowe was. The whole cast would kind of gather around his place and we would just sing for hours. We all bonded that way. He has become a dear, dear friend," she said, "and I feel very blessed to have him in our life."

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IHT Rendezvous: Meditations on the F1 Season to Come - and on 20 Seasons Run

PARIS — The 2013 Formula One season has not really begun. The first race takes place March 17 in Melbourne. But with the launches of the new cars and the first four days of test sessions ending Friday, the seeds have been planted. What kind of plant will grow is not easy to figure out.

I have been observing from the sidelines for a couple of weeks, watching the fanfare of the car launches — or rather, the lack of fanfare — and watching the lap-by-lap action on the track in Jerez, Spain. Every day I’ve asked myself, what is really new this year? The cars, most of them, are merely the technical evolutions of last year’s cars.

They all look fairly similar — although some, thank goodness, have smoothed out that ugly nose problem of last season. There is good reason for the familiarity; the technical regulations haven’t changed much since last season. The big changes will all occur next year, especially with the change in the engine specifications.

It is common knowledge within Formula One and to most fans that the first winter test sessions of the new cars reveal and mean very little. The engineers are not forced into running their cars to racing specifications, and they can test parts that would be deemed illegal in a race. They can run on low fuel to get great results to attract sponsors, or they can sandbag — run heavy with lots of fuel and ballast — to hide how fast their cars are to the competition.

That said, the tests often do give an idea of who is strong, and who is not. Last year, Ferrari was clearly off the pace — by 1.6 seconds, no less — and that weighed on the Italian team for the whole season. The Lotus was fast, though, and that showed early in the season too. So what about the last four days?

None of it seemed to make sense: Jenson Button started the first session as the fastest car in the McLaren Mercedes, setting his fastest time on the hard tires, which raises the question of how well he will do when racing on the faster soft tires.

Days later, when Felipe Massa was the fastest car of the day, in a Ferrari, still moaned about the speed of Button’s lap, even though it was slower than his. But it all had to do with tires and track conditions. Then there was the Lotus, with Romain Grosjean setting a fastest lap, and then Kimi Raikkonen doing the same.The new Toro Rosso car and the Force India team also posted amazingly fast laps.

Lewis Hamilton’s made his first test as part of the Mercedes team. Many people had criticized him for changing teams while he was secure in his seat at McLaren. Hamilton ended up running off the track with broken brakes after his first few laps. But he came back strongly and left the session on Friday smiling.

All these developments did add up to a conclusion, despite the story seeming to change every day. The story this season may well change from one race to another, one session to another, as it did the first part of last season.

The cars are currently so closely aligned — except for the ones like the Marussia and the Caterham, the smaller teams — that there could be a lot of shifting around of the powers that be.

If that’s the case, we’re in for another great and interesting season. On the other hand, this was just the first winter test session, and we have two more to go, starting with the one in Barcelona Feb. 19.

Another development in Formula One that gave me pause came in another venue entirely: in American journalism.

I’m talking about an 8,152-word article in the Feb. 4 issue of The New Yorker all about Formula One. “The Art of Speed; Bringing Formula One to America,” by Ben McGrath, is a well-written and entertaining, but surface-scratching story introducing Formula One to American readers.

I thoroughly enjoyed it, and felt stimulated seeing the high-brow literary colossus giving this much space and interest to the sport I have been covering for so many years for the International Herald Tribune and The New York Times. One of the things that intrigued me was that The New Yorker story read like a beginner’s guide to F1 — unlike, for instance, The Economist or other major publications that rarely cover the sport, but that when they do tend to be reporting on some kind of scandal.

It was, as the title suggested, an introduction to this sport that has never pierced the American consciousness the way other forms of auto racing — like Nascar — have, probably simply because there are no American heroes involved in it today.

On the other hand, like the season testing, it also left me wondering just how often Formula One has to be introduced in the United States after a history that goes back more than 60 years, and two Formula One world champion American drivers, one of whom is named Mario Andretti.

I’d say the article in The New Yorker is a pretty big step in that direction.

Of course, the topic of F1 and journalism reminded me that 2013 marks the 20th anniversary of my own beginning covering the sport for the International Herald Tribune. I published my first story in the paper on the series: Grand Prix Racing: 1993 Is Shaping Up Great Despite FISA

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After early start, worst of flu season may be over

NEW YORK (AP) — The worst of the flu season appears to be over.

The number of states reporting intense or widespread illnesses dropped again last week, and in a few states there was very little flu going around, U.S. health officials said Friday.

The season started earlier than normal, first in the Southeast and then spreading. But now, by some measures, flu activity has been ebbing for at least four weeks in much of the country. Flu and pneumonia deaths also dropped the last two weeks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported.

"It's likely that the worst of the current flu season is over," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner said.

But flu is hard to predict, he and others stressed, and there have been spikes late in the season in the past.

For now, states like Georgia and New York — where doctor's offices were jammed a few weeks ago — are reporting low flu activity. The hot spots are now the West Coast and the Southwest.

Among the places that have seen a drop: Lehigh Valley Hospital-Cedar Crest in Allentown, Pa., which put up a tent outside its emergency room last month to help deal with the steady stream of patients. There were about 100 patients each day back then. Now it's down to 25 and the hospital may pack up its tent next week, said Terry Burger, director of infection control and prevention for the hospital.

"There's no question that we're seeing a decline," she said.

In early December, CDC officials announced flu season had arrived, a month earlier than usual. They were worried, saying it had been nine years since a winter flu season started like this one. That was 2003-04 — one of the deadliest seasons in the past 35 years, with more than 48,000 deaths.

Like this year, the major flu strain was one that tends to make people sicker, especially the elderly, who are most vulnerable to flu and its complications

But back then, that year's flu vaccine wasn't made to protect against that bug, and fewer people got flu shots. The vaccine is reformulated almost every year, and the CDC has said this year's vaccine is a good match to the types that are circulating. A preliminary CDC study showed it is about 60 percent effective, which is close to the average.

So far, the season has been labeled moderately severe.

Like others, Lehigh Valley's Burger was cautious about making predictions. "I'm not certain we're completely out of the woods," with more wintry weather ahead and people likely to be packed indoors where flu can spread around, she said.

The government does not keep a running tally of flu-related deaths in adults, but has received reports of 59 deaths in children. The most — nine — were in Texas, where flu activity was still high last week. Roughly 100 children die in an average flu season, the CDC says

On average, about 24,000 Americans die each flu season, according to the CDC.

According to the CDC report, the number of states with intense activity is down to 19, from 24 the previous week, and flu is widespread in 38 states, down from 42.

Flu is now minimal in Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

___

Online:

CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/

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Old mystery: Why did Gardena help get police vests to Cambodia?

A decade ago, Gardena Police Capt. Tom Monson was surprised to discover that a $5,190 check had been mailed to his station from the Honorary Consulate of the Kingdom of Cambodia.

Monson was unable to figure out what business the small police agency had with the government of Cambodia.

Shortly afterward, Monson was presented with another vexing puzzle. His police department had recently purchased 173 bulletproof vests from the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department — a lot, considering that the department had fewer than 100 officers.

Then he noticed the price of those vests: $5,190. The same amount the Kingdom of Cambodia had paid to the department.

So began a mystery about ballistic vests, international police connections and local politics that still endures 10 years later.

A Times investigation has found that top sheriff's officials used the City of Gardena to funnel hundreds of bulletproof vests to Cambodian police.

Sheriff's media representatives gave The Times differing accounts about the transaction, initially denying any sheriff's officials were involved in sending the vests to Cambodia, then offering explanations contradicted by records and interviews. The officials involved in the transaction refused to discuss it.

Prompted by The Times' inquiry, Sheriff Lee Baca recently asked the county auditor-controller's office to examine the sale, and a sheriff's spokesman called that review "a complete vindication" that proved the transactions were "above board." But Auditor-Controller Wendy Watanabe said in an interview she was only told that the vests were sold to Gardena, not that Gardena was a go-between to get them to Cambodia.

"The word Cambodia didn't even come up in the conversation," she said.

It is not unusual for U.S. law enforcement agencies to donate used or obsolete equipment to other departments, including foreign ones. But in this case, the vests were sent through an intermediary and not declared to customs officials, as required by federal law. Instead, they were stuffed inside one of a number of patrol cars that the Sheriff's Department was shipping directly to Cambodia, avoiding the rigorous vetting process the U.S. government requires to prevent body armor from getting into the wrong hands abroad.

The U.S. Customs Service launched an investigation into the sale of the vests in 2002, and federal agents were told that the transactions were coordinated by Paul Tanaka, who is both the sheriff's second-in-command and the mayor of Gardena. Other members of the City Council were kept in the dark about the purchase — and the vests were never claimed by the city. They were picked up from the sheriff's warehouse, signed for by a sheriff's reserve, then packed into a patrol car headed for the Southeast Asian country.

The existence of the federal probe was never made public until now. Customs agents decided not to seek criminal charges, concluding there wasn't enough evidence to show that anyone involved in the transactions knew the relevant export laws.

David Johnson, a Washington, D.C., export controls attorney who reviewed the records for The Times, called that a "curious rationale," saying authorities don't have to prove knowledge of the law to press charges. "On its face, it seems like someone was going to great lengths to obfuscate the actual transaction," he said.

After closing the case, federal authorities referred the matter to sheriff's investigators. But a sheriff's spokesman said the department did not conduct its own investigation.

The spokesman, Steve Whitmore, said officials did nothing wrong and sent the vests through Gardena because they were under the mistaken impression that county rules prevented them from dealing directly with foreign nations. He could not explain why that same misunderstanding did not apply to the patrol cars, which officials did send directly to the Cambodians as part of the same shipment.

Tanaka declined to comment for this story. Several of the Gardena council members serving at the time said they never knew about the vests. "I'm very troubled by it," former Councilman Steven Bradford said in an interview.

::

City records showed that Gardena had made two purchases from the Sheriff's Department, the first in May for 173 unused ballistic vests and the second a month later for 300 used vests at a cost of $3,000. Monson and a colleague notified federal authorities.

Records obtained by The Times under the Freedom of Information Act detail the customs probe. Though the names of those interviewed were redacted, it is clear that investigators approached City Manager Mitchell Lansdell.

Lansdell, the records indicate, explained that the purchase was ordered by a councilman who also worked for the Sheriff's Department — a profile that fits only Tanaka. That councilman, the city manager said, called him at home and told him to buy vests that were about to be put up for sale by the Sheriff's Department.

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Tiger Woods & Lindsey Vonn Are 'Spending More Time' Together: Source

Buzz

By Steve Helling

02/09/2013 at 06:00 PM EST

Tiger Woods and Lindsey Vonn

Mick Tsikas/Reuters/Landov; Luis Guerra/Ramey

It was quite the gesture.

After Lindsey Vonn suffered a devastating injury during the Alpine World Championships in Austria, she got a bit of help from Tiger Woods. Walking on crutches, Vonn – who tore two ligaments in her right knee and fractured her shin when she crashed on Tuesday ­– boarded Woods's private jet to return home.

Is it a sign that the rumored relationship between Woods and Vonn is heating up?

"Tiger and Lindsey have been friends for a while, and nothing started out romantically at all," a source tells PEOPLE. "But they really have a lot in common and got closer and closer. He still refers to her as 'my very good friend,' but he's been spending more and more time talking to her – and talking about her."

Last month, Vonn's reps kept mum about the rumored relationship, telling PEOPLE that her "focus is solely on competing and on defending her titles and thus she will not participate in any speculation surrounding her personal life at this time."

But the source close to Woods tells PEOPLE that Woods, 37, and Vonn. 28, talk and text frequently.

"Tiger really does want a woman who he can have good conversations with," he says. "He wants shared interests and outlooks. He is finding that with [Lindsey]."

Woods made international headlines in 2009 when he was linked to dozens of women while still married to his ex-wife, Elin Nordegren.

Since then, he has dated sporadically, but struggled to find someone who wanted a relationship for the right reasons.

"She's not freaked out by his past, and that's really appealing to him," says the source. "He really does deserve to be happy. He has been flogging himself for three years, and it's good to see him moving forward."

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Berlusconi Remains the Wild Card in Italy Race

ROME — One candidate promised to drop an unpopular new property tax and refund all prior payments in cash. Another called that proposal a “poisoned meatball,” disconnected from reality. A third suggested that Al Qaeda blow up the Italian Parliament — then backtracked — and the man generally considered the front-runner is campaigning on vague promises of stability, so has often been ignored.

With only two weeks to go before national elections, the Italian campaign has become a surreal spectacle in which a candidate many had given up for dead, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, has surged. Although he is not expected ever to govern again, with his media savvy and pie-in-the-sky offers of tax refunds, Mr. Berlusconi now trails the front-runner, Pierluigi Bersani, the leader of the Democratic Party, by about five or six points, according to a range of opinion polls published on Friday.

The polls found that the former comedian Beppe Grillo, who made the Qaeda quip as part of his antipolitical campaign, is close behind in third place, while the caretaker prime minister, Mario Monti, who made the “poisoned meatball” remark as he stepped up attacks on Mr. Berlusconi in an awkward transition from technocrat to candidate, is taking up the rear with around 10 percent to 15 percent of the vote.

Most analysts predict that the center-left will win, but with not enough votes to govern without forming an alliance with Mr. Monti’s centrists. Yet in a complex political landscape — and with significant policy differences between Mr. Monti and Mr. Bersani, who have been criticizing each other in their campaigns — nothing is a given, and the political uncertainty weighs on financial markets.

Some compare the election to a power struggle on a corporate board. “Mr. Berlusconi knows he can’t govern, but wants a strong seat at the table,” said Marco Damilano, a political reporter for L’Espresso, a weekly. The Democratic Party will have the majority of seats but will not be able to govern without making accords, he said, adding that “Monti wants the golden share,” in which his few seats count for a lot.

Many outsiders marvel at the survival skills of Mr. Berlusconi, who dragged down Italy’s finances and international standing to the point that Mr. Monti was brought on in November 2011 to lead an emergency technocratic government that lasted a year. But at least a good part of Mr. Berlusconi’s success has to do with his competition.

Mr. Monti lacks a strong party and has hit Italians with unpopular taxes, and centrists who might lean left are concerned that Mr. Bersani would be weak on the flagging economy. On top of that, Mr. Berlusconi, whose center-right People of Liberty is more a charismatic movement than a party, has true loyalists who do not know where else to turn.

“Berlusconi is politically dead, but his electorate is still there and it is looking for a new leader, and there isn’t one,” said Massimo Franco, a political columnist for the daily newspaper Corriere della Sera. “So it’s a sort of a nostalgic operation.”

In an auditorium near the Vatican, Mr. Berlusconi was greeted Thursday by rows of adoring fans, most of them retirees. “Ah,” he said. “It reminds me of the good old days.” Joking about his age, the 76-year-old former premier added: “I looked at myself in the mirror and saw someone who didn’t look like me. They don’t make mirrors the way they used to.”

In a two-hour off-the-cuff speech, he returned to familiar themes: depicting the left as unreconstructed, cold-war Communists; magistrates as politically motivated; the euro and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany as harming Italy; and Mr. Monti as a leader beholden to foreign interests who did nothing but raise taxes.

His supporters were mostly buying it. “Even if he doesn’t refund us the property tax, at least he’ll take it away,” said Francesca Cipriani, 70, a retiree, as she cheered Mr. Berlusconi.

“My house is worth 20 percent less,” Nicola Manichelli, 75, a retired taxi driver, chimed in.

Marcello Sorgi, a columnist for the Turin daily newspaper La Stampa, said: “Berlusconi voters fear that Monti will raise taxes, and that under Berlusconi that won’t happen. It’s not at all true, but Berlusconi’s propaganda works with his electorate.”

“His electorate still has a messianic, religious rapport with him,” Mr. Sorgi added.“Berlusconi is considered a kind of guru.”

Not so with Mr. Monti, who is beloved in Brussels, Berlin and Washington, but has been less popular with Italian voters. As he learns to campaign, Mr. Monti, an economist with no previous political experience, has sought the services of the political consulting firm AKPD Message and Media, whose co-founder, David Axelrod, President Obama’s key political strategist, visited Mr. Monti in Rome last month.

Mr. Monti, who is trying to capture the civic-minded centrists from both right and left who once voted for the centrist Christian Democrats before the party disbanded in a corruption scandal in the early 1990s, also opened a Facebook page. He uses it to post folksy musings that some critics say are undermining the authority of the slyly ironic but hardly showmanlike candidate instead of humanizing him.

Last week, an interviewer presented Mr. Monti with a puppy on live television, days after Mr. Berlusconi had appeared with one. “This is a mean blackmail,” Mr. Monti said with a smile, before stroking the fluffy pet and saying, “Feel how soft it is.”

Mr. Bersani, a longtime party veteran and former economic growth minister, speaks more to the old guard of the Italian left. He defeated Matteo Renzi, the charismatic 38-year-old mayor of Florence, in a rare party primary and has been running on the slogan “A Just Italy,” a message aimed at reassuring voters but which may not inspire them.

In a half-hour speech on Thursday to party loyalists, including municipal workers and frustrated university adjunct teachers, Mr. Bersani called attention to youth unemployment and the disconnect between the real economy and financial markets, and called for economic stimulation to help more people have steady jobs. “Europe isn’t just the fiscal compact,” he said.

Both Mr. Berlusconi and Mr. Bersani appear to speak more to their own constituencies than to the nation as a whole, long a characteristic of Italian politics. Faced with a political class that seems stuck in the past, Mr. Grillo and his antipolitical Five Star Movement have been gaining ground in the polls, campaigning in piazzas across Italy.

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